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Volume :23 Issue : 3 1995      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

A Post-Keynesian Assessment Of Alternative Saudi Arabian Austerity strategies

Auther : Robert E. Looney

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of declining oil revenues for the Saudi Arabian economy. In particular, the paper is interested in examining several alternative expenditure strategies open to the government that would be least disruptive to the non-oil manufacturing sector and in what sense?

The interaction of government expenditures and the private sector was examined using a modified form of the Granger Causality test. These tests were performed on annual data over the period 1960 through 1992 (the last year for which consistent time series data are available).

Our main finding was that contrary to what one might expect, public investment and infrastructure has played a minor role in stimulating private sector capital formation. If anything it appears that increased private sector investment has stimulated a follow-on expansion in government expenditures of this type. It follows that expenditure reductions in this area are not likely to cause a significant reduction in the expansion of private investment.

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