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Volume :16 Issue : 4 1988      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

The Correlates of Arab Military Expenditure and the Onset of the Arms Race: 1971 – 1984

Auther : Saleh A. Al-Mani

This study attempts to delineate military spending in some Arab states and compare it with Israeli and Iranian spending over a fourteen-year period. It employs bivariate and multivariate correlation of military spending in constant (1982  prices), as provided by the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. The study divides the Arab states into four categories: those confronting Israel (Egypt, Syria and Jordan); those facing Iran (Iraq and Saudi Arabia); and the two dyads of North Yemen vs.

South Yemen and Algeria vs. Morocco. The chosen period is important historically since it witnessed the rise and decline of oil power. The researcher utilized four methods: 1)  the application of a bivariate or  multivariate regression analysis;  2)  the application of Richardson’s Arms Race model in each dyad of apparent arms race;  3)  an experimental growth model of Richardson’s model; and  4)  Majeski and Jones’ non-linear single state spending (ARIMA) model. The research found all except the third model to be effective, and regression results showed strong to moderate correlation in the military spending of certain dyads.

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