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Volume :16 Issue : 2 1988      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

Early Warning System and predicting the Solvency of Insurance Companies

Auther : Mohamed Tawfik EL-Mansoury

The objective of this research is to construct a mathematical model for predicting the solvency of general insurance companies, and to identify firms with a high probability of financial distress. The Insurance Regulatory  Information System ( IRIS ) has been applied on data from Egyptian companies during the time period of the study (1982  - 85 ), but only nine out of a total of eleven ratios have been utilized due to lack of data. In order to identify the solvency of companies, the multivariate discriminate analysis was used as a model to classify firms into two groups (solvent or distressed). The model developed was able to classify correctly all the companies included in the study. Ten variables were used to classify companies, and the study concludes with recommendations.

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