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Volume :32 Issue : 2 2004      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

From Coexistence to Coalescence: A Simulation Model for the Growth of Two Cities (Abha and Khamis - Mushayt)in South-western Saudi Arabia

Auther : Abdel Moneim A. Ibrahim

This paper focuses on the case of Abha and Khamis-Mushayt in Assir region. The two cities have grown from small villages along the wadies of Abha and Bisha to be ranked the two largest settlements in the whole south-western region of Saudi Arabia. The area separating them is diminishing rapidly with their fast growth. The study aims to identify primary factors influencing their growth, elucidate the structure and mechanism through which they function, highlight major expected results of the growth, and suggest certain measures for their control. A special DYNAMO model is developed and used to simulate the growth of the two cities. The model predicts Abha and Khamis-Mushayt to form a canurbation with a population of 1002389 persons by the year 1445H/2025 A.D. The model also expects important urban problems to accompany the process, partiucularly in the housing, labor, and services sectors in addition to similar environmental problems. Finally, the study, concludes with some relevant recommendations for handling These problems.

Keywords: System dynamics, Urban sprawl, Coexistence, Coalescence,

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