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Volume :47 Issue : 181 2021      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

Using Time Series Analysis Methods to Predict the Total Crimes in Kuwait.

Auther : Dr. Tareq A. Aldoub


Objectives: This study aims to predict the total number of crimes in the State of Kuwait to reach future accurate criminal data to be used by security forces for security planning process, especially in the field of crime prevention.
Method: Box and Jenkins methodology were used as one of the methods of analyzing time series; SARIMA model was used to predict the total number of crimes in the State of Kuwait based on the total number of monthly crimes data issued by the Research and Studies Center - Ministry of Interior in Kuwait from 1/2001 to 12/2017 to compare SARIMA models through AIC, AICC, BIC standards.
Results: The study shows that the optimal among SARIMS models is the model SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,2)12. It is used to predict the total number of crimes in Kuwait until the end of 2020.
Conclusion: The study concludes that decision makers should take good care of developing complete criminal statistics system in all of its stages and give it considerable attention in order to obtain accurate predictions that help in combating potential crimes.

Keywords: Kuwait, Forecast, Crime, Seasonal Changes, SARIMA Model.

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Dec 26, 2021

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