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Volume :8 Issue : 29 1982      Add To Cart                                                                    Download

DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTATIONS OF GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE AND ITS COMPONENTS IN KUWAIT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING DECADE

Auther : Dr. Abdul Salam Y. Idrisi

 

         This paper aims at utilizing data on gross domestic product (with and without oil) and the components of gross national expenditure for the period extending from 1970/1971 to 1977/1978 to attain the best estimation for the period 1978/79 to 1990/91.  Through the experimentation of the trial and error and by elimination, the best method of estimation is reached.

         By the employment of four relationships in the tentative estimation of GDP (with 1-7 year independent variable) and the utilization of GDP as an independent variable in the computation of the components of gross national expenditure, and appropriate estimate is figured out.  The major components of gross national expenditure are: private consumption, government consumption, gross investment, imports and exports.

         For the objective of selecting the most convenient method of estimation, some modes of procedure, which give illogical results, were eliminated.  This has been ensued by the elimination of methods according to statistical tests and the evaluation of others in relation to macro-economic analysis.  Ultimately, from the remaining few convenient methods, only the one with the smallest standard error, the highest correlation coefficient and the smallest difference between the sum of the GDP components and the estimated GDP is embarked upon.  It is noteworthy to mention in this connection that the official figures on GDP and its components for 1978/79 and 1979/80 coincided closely with the figures attained through the method selected for estimation in this mental exercise.

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